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Buying lotto tickets=good, taking the Broncos as +3.5 underdogs=bad
Some lady in Massachusetts won the $758.7M Powerball Wednesday night. Good for her. Seriously, that comes with no sarcasm or resentment. This week's goal isn't to bash a lady for winning a life-changing amount of money. The goal this week is to take shots at state governments that allow lotteries, but at the same time say betting the over/under of the Patriots vs. Chiefs game is amoral and cannot be allowed unless we want to watch our civilization be swallowed into the sea.
The lottery is gambling.
But damn do they, the government, try really hard to convince us otherwise. They throw out plenty of distractions by saying the money raised will go to funding education, cities or counties in said state.
Here's an idea if states are really concerned about education funding why not create a better tax structure? You know just a thought.
The lottery is gambling in its absolutely dumbest form. There is no foolproof strategy that is guaranteed to win. (Well there were those MIT students who won $8M from 2004-'10 by gaming the Massachusetts lotto but they did have to buy 100,000 tickets to do; so we're going to count that one as an outlier.) There is absolutely no skill to winning the lottery. It is 100 percent random with no rhyme or reason to any of it.
The lottery is also an epic scam and not just for those who lose but the winners as well. Say you win the jackpot you have a choice of taking a lump sum or annuity, and no matter what you decide the government gets a cut. Not only do they cash in on the lottery itself but they take an additional cut after you win.
How many meetings did we miss to allow something like this to happen?
It would be like playing fantasy football with the world's worst commissioner, not only do you have league dues but when you win your league the Comish is going to take 30 percent of your winnings.
The lottery is gambling.
Meanwhile if you want take the Broncos as 3.5 point favorites over the Chargers in Week 1, you would have to take a trip to Las Vegas or Delaware to do so. Montana and Oregon have laws that legalize sportsbook gambling but nothing in place that allows people to do so.
Betting on professional sports is a skill just look at the margin of success to be a professional sportsbook gambler. If you're at 56 percent or above you may have found your true calling. If you're anywhere from 55 percent to 53 percent you're doing alright but by all means stay at your current job. Anything below 53 percent at best you're breaking even but more than likely in the hole.
If you think you could best these margins try out this challenge. Set up an Excel spreadsheet to track your bets, pick six winners by the spread for each week's slate of NFL games and if at the end of the season your winning margin is above those that I just laid out, move to Vegas during the NFL season.
For the rest of us by Week 2 you'll realize that picking the spreads is tougher than it looks and requires as much research as if you were investing in stocks. (Shh ... the stock market is secret gambling, but don't tell anyone.)
It might sound like I'm against the lottery but I'm not. I've played twice in my life, both times were when the jackpot was close to or over a billion dollars. What I'm against is this cherry-picking of what's "good gambling" and what's "bad gambling."
It would be one thing if states allowed sportsbooks but didn't allow lotteries. The defense would be easier because you can say it is skill based while lotteries are not. Unfortunately, that's not the world we live in. Instead we have the dumbest form of gambling that is legal, and propped up by the state with the worst commercials on the planet but the one that requires genuine skill is illegal.
(By the way who decided to have the jackalope as the official logo of WyoLotto? Is it a cryptic message to those that play that this mythical creature represents all the mythical money they're going to win?).
If alien visitors came to this planet and we sat them down to explain our world, how do we sell them on this without them laughing in our face?
There's a reason professional sports leagues like the NBA and, slowly, the NFL are coming around to the idea of legalization. Sportsbooks gambling could easily be regulated and monitored with today's technology. That's part of the reason these leagues are coming around to the idea, well that and their players make much more money than the days of the 1919 White Sox. So the incentive isn't there. Plus these leagues would put in punitive measure for players that even came close to a sportsbook or game fixer.
What about the NCAA? Well that's a real easy fix. Just like the pro leagues, you put in place tough measures to discourage that behavior; like if a player is found guilty it would result in an immediate loss of scholarship and if they're a pro prospect a lifetime ban from the pro league. Will some take the risk? Sure but the majority will follow the rules.
Having legal gambling would also increase voter turnout in elections. How do you ask? If you're going to put money on a candidate you're going to do your research it's that simple. The UK allows political gambling and their voter turnout averages around high 60s and low 70s, this isn't a correlation but I'd say it does increase turnout to a degree.
Some of you will argue this would make a mockery of the democratic process, but I'd counter with the politicians have done a great job of that already. So fair is fair and at least we could make some money off this.
The sooner we call the lottery for what it is the sooner we can move on to legalizing sportsbooks. We can allow people and other industries around sportsbooks to pop up giving money to the state through the old-fashion way, taxes.
Plus I really don't want to travel to Vegas to cash in on Josh Allen leading the 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars to their first Super Bowl victory.