Serving the Big Horn Basin for over 100 years
The Divisional round started with a dud but after that, the games got better and better, until bang, we were given one of the craziest, is this real life, plays in NFL playoff history. When Blake Bortles threw that pass to fullback Tommy Bohanon...
I kid.
Of course, I'm talking about the "Minneapolis Miracle." Being completely honest, I didn't watch the second half of Vikings-Saints game live. After the Vikings went up 17-0, I thought that was a wrap for the Saints and went to watch "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle," again. (I do not regret my decision, Jumanji is awesome.)
Coming out of the Washakie Twin Cinemas I did check the score and much to my surprise Minnesota was trailing 24-23 but had the ball on their 39-yard line with 10 seconds left and no timeouts. Then the update came with Case Keenum completing a 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs for the victory. Thinking it was a goof on ESPN's part I went to Twitter to find a clip and sure enough it really happened.
After so many torturous playoff losses the Vikings finally had a miracle of their own. Those 10 seconds encapsulated the entire fan experience, euphoric highs and soul-crushing lows.
Now on to some picks!
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8.5)
During the Jags-Steelers game, I didn't start relaxing until that Bortles to Bohanon touchdown pass. Up until that point, there was a lot of pacing and pleading with the game clock to move faster.
What was more impressive to me about that win was how the Jags took the best shot from the Steelers and still came out on top.
Antonio Brown's, who is the best WR in football right now and anyone who says otherwise needs to go take a nap, two TD receptions were simply amazing. Jag DB AJ Bouye was all over him, even horse-collaring him for the length of the field on the second TD, and he still hauled in the Big Ben dimes. Then you had Le'Veon Bell on a wheel route with LB Telvin Smith draped over him, who even batted the ball, make an incredible TD catch.
Those were the types of plays that you throw your hands up and say "Well, damn."
Enough about that game, on to the one that matters.
Between the congratulatory texts, as if I were on the team, and telling my wife that the Jags were seriously one win away from making the Super Bowl, to which she kept replying “The Jaguars?”, it started settling in the Patriots were standing in the way.
I’ve admired the Patriots franchise for a long time. The discipline within that building is something every franchise should model. Their commitment to worrying about the season at hand and not getting tied up in past accomplishments is another trait that needs to be adopted by other franchises.
That said, I want the Jags to kill the dynasty, bring down the empire just like the Germanic tribes did to the Western Roman Empire.
Having the Patriots dynasty toppled by the Jaguars, who other than the Browns were the worst franchises of this decade, is a great narrative. From sad-sack franchise to dynasty killers, the story basically writes itself.
Look, winning the game is going to be tough. I started the week thinking the Jags didn’t have an answer for TE Rob Gronkowski and the cause was lost. But after doing a little research and listening to smarter football people than myself, all-word DB Jalen Ramsey can cover Gronk, especially in the red zone. The Broncos did it with Aqib Talib during the 2016 AFC Championship and they went on to win the Super Bowl
As everyone knows beating the Pats is about knocking QB Tom Brady off his mark and the best way to do that is to rush four and get a lot of pressure up the middle. The Jags absolutely have the personnel to execute that with Malik Jackson, who raised hell against the Pats as a Bronco in that 2016 Championship game, Calais Campbell, Arby Jones and Marcell Dareus.
The Pats WRs are scary to a degree but not to the level that the Steelers WRs were. Bouye will have a bounce-back game and I’m sure Brady will take some shots at him especially when he’s locked up with Brandin Cooks, but he’ll return to form.
Other than Gronk, the only other players I’m worried about on New England are Deion Lewis and James White. Jacksonville does have the linebackers in Smith and Myles Jack to cover those guys, but they’re so skilled and Lewis has been so, so good the past two months. (If you have time Google Lewis’ NFL journey, the man is the definition of perseverance.)
On to the big question, how are the Jags going to score? The offense can’t rely on the defense to score every game. Blake Bortles and company have to find ways to generate points, to which I say they will. Jacksonville OC Nathaniel Hackett learned his lesson during their Wildcard game against the Bills, you can’t be ultra-conservative with Bortles. He needs plays that let him sling it and give him swagger, he’ll have bad stretches but, ultimately, like with the Pittsburgh game, it’s going to pay off in the end.
The Pats will probably stack the box and force Bortles to make plays, and when the Jags can get the running game going, look out. While New England’s pass defense has greatly improved, their rush defense has stayed near the bottom of the rankings. They also run a 3-4 defense and Jacksonville’s best rushing performances this season have come against 3-4 defenses.
While most will be focusing on the Bortles, the Jacksonville WRs are my biggest concern on offense. Their two most talented and experienced WRs Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee are battling through injuries and they’ve had to rely on rookies Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook. When these guys get in space they make plays but that’s been the problem lately. If it’s not a fly route, they’re not getting much separation, especially on their intermediate routes. They will be the x-factors in the game.
I know it’s a homer pick but I have to roll with my team. I believe the Jags D does enough to bother Brady and get the Pats offense out of sync. Jacksonville wins the turnover battle, RB’s Leonard Fournette and TJ Yeldon will be forces and special teamer Corey Grant will make a big play.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Patriots 20
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
For those who have complained all decade about the NFL going soft and giving preferential treatment to the offenses, here is your reward for gutting it out. This game is going to be every defensive cliché you can think of all piled into one game with a Super Bowl trip on the line.
Eagles head coach Doug Pederson took some heat early in the season as some questioned whether or not he was head coach material. Last Saturday he lit his cigar with flames of those columns questioning his coaching skills after their victory over the Falcons. Pederson and his staff were brilliant in that victory, they put QB Nick Foles in the perfect spot to succeed and relied on their defense. They even lost the turnover battle and still found a way to get that win.
When the Vikings get a lead they love running the ball, but the Eagles have the best rush defense in the league. The Vikings will find ways to loosen up that Philly run D, yet, it all comes down to which Case Keenum is going to show. If it’s the one from the first half of the Saints game, Minnesota can push this game into the 20s and Philly won’t be able to keep up.
But if the game stays in the low teens it turns into a toss-up.
For me when a game is in that toss-up range it comes down to coaching, special teams and playmakers, I know very generic stuff but it holds true.
For coaching, you have Pederson vs. Mike Zimmer, excellent coaches that have shown they’re capable of not making weird decisions during high-pressure moments, so that’s a wash.
Special teams, according to Football Outsiders special teams rankings the Eagles rank 16th on the season and the Vikings 18th, another wash.
It all comes down to playmakers, this is where the Vikings gain the edge. The Eagles do have nice weapons in RBs Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount, WRs Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor and defenders Malcolm Jenkins, Fletcher Cox and Nigel Bradham. But they don’t scare you as much as the Vikings playmakers do. Diggs has shown what he’s capable of doing, Thielen is going to have his moment in these playoffs. Then look at their defense led by their two All-Pros Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes, it’s a long list of guys that make things happen.
That’s why I’m going with the Vikings to win a scrappy, hard-fought Championship game.
Pick: Vikings 13, Eagles 9
Last week
Straight-up: 3-1
Against the spread: 2-2
Overall
Straight up: 6-2
Against the spread: 3-5on to the one that matters.