Serving the Big Horn Basin for over 100 years
Serving the Big Horn Basin for over 100 years
The NFL season kicksoff tonight and it's time to reveal my playoff picks for this season.
Let's get to it!
Each team's over/under win total is in parentheses next to their team name as well as each team's best fantasy player and a player to avoid.
PLAYOFF TEAMS
No. 6-SEEDS
AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8.5)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 9-7
A lot of the criticism Andy Reid gets is his own doing. He gets too cute and somehow hasn't learned clock-management this deep into his career. That said, he's still a great coach who knows how to develop players and schemes to fit their strengths. Because of Reid, the Chiefs will snag that final playoff spot. The defense is rebuilding and figures to be quite generous. A silver lining for Chiefs fans is at least QB Patrick Mahomes will get plenty of reps because they're going to be in a lot of shootouts.
Best fantasy player: RB Kareem Hunt
Fantasy stay away: WR Sammy Watkins
NFC
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9.5)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 10-6
The NFC is stacked with top-tier teams and it's within reason to say eight of the top 10 teams in the NFL play in the NFC. Getting into the playoffs will be an accomplishment of its own.
I think this is the first time during the Drew Brees-Saints era that he's not the strength of their team. The Saints have the best RB duo in the league with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. They're both multipurpose backs who can run between the tackles and go out for a pass. Ingram and Kamara are the keys to the Saints season.
For the record, I love Drew Brees and consider him to be a top-five QB of all-time. Last season though he showed some signs of slippage and father time is closing in. He's still one of the best in the league right now, just not as dominant as he used to be.
The Saints passing D is still elite, even though the last time we saw them they gave up a hail Mary to the Vikings. It's their run D that's going to cost them games this year.
Best fantasy player: RB Alvin Kamara
Fantasy stay away: QB Drew Brees
No. 5-SEEDS
AFC
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10.5)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 9-7
It's weird the Steelers haven't won a Super Bowl with the Killer B's, right? How do you have this much talent with Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell and not at least make a Super Bowl appearance?
We all know the Steelers offense is going to be awesome and we also know their defense is trash, so there's a few Ls there. They also lose one to two winnable road games every season. Big Ben will miss two to three games at the midseason point, a few Ls there. Their division is a bit tougher and they can't count on two easy wins against the Browns.
It just feels like there's going to be drama for them this year too. Whether that's people calling for coach Mike Tomlin to be fired, Bell and his contract stuff or possibly a QB controversy. They won't reach their potential and they'll be one of the greatest missed opportunities in NFL history.
Best fantasy player: WR Antonio Brown/ RB Le'Veon Bell
Fantasy stay away: QB Ben Roethlisberger
NFC
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 11-5
The Vikings are another sexy Super Bowl champion pick. I have my doubts though. They're certainly a playoff worthy team. The defense is still elite, their offensive skill position players are studs, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are the best WR duo in the league, and Mike Zimmer is a top five coach.
What's not getting me on the Vikings bandwagon is QB Kirk Cousins and a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
Other than being a surprisingly solid fantasy player, what has Cousins done on the field? (I say on the field because he may be an NFL free agency pioneer by getting that three-year $84 million deal all guaranteed.) He's had one playoff appearance and comparing his stats last season to Keenum's they're quite similar. Keenum had a better completion percentage, 67.6 to 64.3.; Cousins threw for more TDs, 27 to 22; Keenum had fewer INTs, 13 to 7. I have a feeling the Vikings will regret signing Cousins by the end of the season.
Aaron Rodgers being healthy for '18 is another reason I think the Vikings take a step back this year. A monster MVP season from Rodgers feels like a certainty.
Best fantasy player: WR Adam Thielen
Fantasy stay away: No one
No. 4-SEEDS
AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (8)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 9-7
I officially declare Baltimore's punishment for their role in Deflategate over. The tattle-tales received their final penance during Week 17 of last season when a banged up Bengals team prevented them from making the playoffs on a last-second touchdown.
The playoffs are within reach this season and they're in position to grab the AFC North crown. Justifiably, there's been a lot of excitement around rookie QB Lamar Jackson but Joe Flacco has one more "How is this possible?" playoff run in him. Playoff Joe is a real thing and the Ravens defense is a bit underrated.
Best fantasy player: WR Michael Crabtree
Fantasy stay away: QB Joe Flacco
NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 10-6
When you really look at the Eagles run to their first Super Bowl title it's a crazy story.
Early in the season, they lost RB Darren Sproles to injury, not the end of the world but still a strong locker room presence. Their next injury is Jason Peter's their All-Pro left tackle, but the O-line keeps chugging along as a top-ranked unit.
As the Eagles were hitting their stride, QB and MVP candidate Carson Wentz is lost for the season due to a knee injury in Week 13. The loss of Wentz sunk my fantasy football team but not the Eagles.
They turned to journeyman QB Nick Foles, who was atrocious up until the NFC Championship game. But in the championship game and Super Bowl, he was the best QB on the field. They lost players at critical positions, yet still found a way to grab the NFL's top prize by downing the Patriot Dynasty. Just an awesome story all around.
This year I think they're going to regress. They'll go through the typical Super Bowl winner hangover but it's not going to break them.
Best fantasy player: TE Zach Ertz
Fantasy stay away: WR Alshon Jeffery
No. 3-SEEDS
AFC
L.A. CHARGERS (9.5)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 10-6
I really like the Chargers this season, not as much as others who are predicting a Super Bowl run, but they're still going to be a formidable squad. They're the second AFC team I'm most afraid of this season.
QB Philip Rivers is going into his 15th season and this could be the most amount of weapons he's had around him. Keenan Allen is a top WR and those behind him on the depth chart, like their No. 1 pick from 2017 Mike Williams, are no slouches either. RB Melvin Gordon could leap into that elite back status and Austin Eckler is a solid third-down back. TE is weak with Hunter Henry out for the season but there are rumors Antonio Gates will come out of his brief retirement. If Gates does stay in retirement, I can see the Chargers using Allen or Williams more inside the on red zone opportunities as hybrid TEs.
Best fantasy player: RB Melvin Gordon
Fantasy stay away: TEs not named Antonio Gates
NFC
GREEN BAY PACKERS (10)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 12-4
I know Rodgers got PAID this week but is it fair to say he's still underpaid? Rodgers is like LeBron James, in that they'll never be paid their true worth because it would take the GDP of American Soma ($658 million) to do so.
Last season showed Rodgers is the reason the Packers are a Super Bowl hopeful year in and year out. Mike McCarthy is a good coach but he's no Belichick.
The Packers D is going to be Swiss cheese-esque but this unit needs to worry about is finding ways to create turnovers. They don't have the personnel to lock it down, so they're going to have to take chances by forcing turnovers. They'll get burnt from time to time but if they can force picks or fumbles it'll be alright because I feel a Rodgers god-mode season coming on.
When Rodgers hits that god-mode we've seen him murder opposing defenses in the most cold-blooded of ways. The Redzone channel is going to be busy switching to Packers' games all season long.
Best fantasy player: QB Aaron Rodgers
Fantasy stay away: Any RB
No. 2-SEEDS
AFC
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 12-4
I'm all in on the Jags.
I'm not sure how many times I'll have this opportunity to do so and I'm taking advantage of the opportunity. I don't know why their over/under is set so low, but it's disrespectful.
A bulk of the team is back from last season and when you look at this roster they're very young, it helps when you spend most the decade picking in the top five of the draft. They know they gave away the AFC championship game last season. Everything I've read, all the players comments, it sounds like they're locked in for a Super Bowl run.
I love that DB Jalen Ramsey is lobbing bombs at everyone not in a Jags uni, it's all great for the NFL. It'll create rivalries or add to them, the best thing is he'll back it up because he's the best DB in the league.
The defense, which was a TD scoring machine last year, likely won't match their eight touchdowns from '17 but they're still going to be a terrifying unit. They have the best and deepest defensive line in the league that includes Wyoming's Taven Bryan.
They bolstered their offensive line and RB Leonard Fournette will have a better more efficient season. They'll use backups TJ Yeldon and Corey Grant more to spell Fournette. The WR group looks like a weakness but Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole will be household names by midseason.
It is true QB Blake Bortles is the X-factor for this team and I've been frustrated and wanted him gone in the past. What he showed last year during the regular season and playoffs, caused me to change my mind. I'm all in. I'm going the full T. O. with Bortles, shades on, a quivering bottom lip and tears running down my face while I say "That's my quarterback!"
Jags Super Bowl champs!
Best fantasy player: RB Leonard Fournette
Fantasy stay away: TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
NFC
L.A. RAMS (10)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 12-4
Coach Sean McVay is the next great NFL coach. He revived the careers of QB Jarred Goff and RB Todd Gurley, and also brought in defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, a brilliant move.
This season they have high expectations that I think they'll live up to. They're loaded on both sides of the ball, talent up and down the roster. Other than injury, the only thing that derails this team is themselves. If the personalities they brought in run amok and wreck the chemistry, this Super Bowl hopeful season will turn into a nightmare.
Best fantasy player: RB Todd Gurley
Fantasy stay away: WR Brandin Cooks
No. 1-SEEDS
AFC
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 13-3
If the rest of the AFC East had any competency, the reign of the Patriots would be near, but no here they are again, the third AFC team that scares me the most.
The Pats get to cruise through an easy division slate and cream puff schedule. Their toughest stretch of games are Week 1 vs Houston and Week 2 at Jacksonville. A 0-2 start is in play and if they do we'll hear about how New England is officially dead. Don't buy it because their next toughest games are Week 9 vs. Green Bay and Week 13 vs. Minnesota and that's it. They're a lock to win more than 11 games.
Best fantasy player: QB Tom Brady
Fantasy stay away: WR Julian Edelman
NFC
ATLANTA FALCONS (9)
Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 12-4
I fully expected the Falcons to implode after losing that Super Bowl to the Pats, but they hung around made the playoffs as a wildcard. They should have beaten the Eagles in the divisional round, but just made too many mistakes.
The Falcons still have a good offensive line, above average QB, super deep receiving corps, two dynamic RBs and an opportunistic defense to boot. Yes, they're in a tough division but between them, the Saints and Panthers, they have the fewest flaws.
Best fantasy player: RB Devonta Freeman
Fantasy stay away: TE Austin Hooper
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
WILDCARD ROUND
AFC
Chargers over Chiefs
Ravens over Steelers
NFC
Packers over Saints
Eagles over Vikings
DIVISIONAL ROUND
AFC
Jags over Chargers
Ravens over Patriots
NFC
Packers over Rams
Falcons over Eagles
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
AFC
Jags over Ravens
NFC
Falcons over Packers
SUPER BOWL
Jags over Falcons (Enjoy the apocalypse everyone!)
