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I know the NFL playoffs are here but how awesome is it the Raiders hired Mike Mayock? I thought there was no possible way the Raiders could be more of an entertaining dumpster fire, but Mark Davis went and did the impossible. The Mayock, Davis and Gruden triumvirate could dominate but there are playoff matchups to get to. I just hope the Raiders are chosen for HBO's Hard Knocks, that would be an instant All-Time great season.
12 teams get to keep playing football and 11 of the 12 have a legit shot at raising the Lombardi Trophy. This is going to be a tough playoff to predict, last year I went 7-4 straight up and 5-6 against the spread. I fully expect those numbers to take a hit this postseason, but tough field or not, that's not going to stop me from handing out the most courageous NFL Wildcard picks in all of sports media.
INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON (-2.5)
Normally, the first game of the playoffs is a throwaway. But this wildcard slate is surprisingly strong and the Colts and Texans will jump-start what's going to be an entertaining postseason.
The Texans nine-game winning streak started with their Week 4 37-34 win over the Colts in OT. That's the game where Colts head coach Frank Reich went for it on fourth-and-four from their own 43-yard line with 27 seconds left in OT. I enjoy aggressive coaching but that was far too aggressive. And the Texan winning streak ended in Week 14, thanks to the Colts.
Divisional rivals matching up in the playoffs are always tough to call, the team's know each other too well and weird things tend to happen all the time. The line opened at -2.5 but has since gone down to -1.5 which goes to show there's confidence on the Colts.
I understand the confidence on the Colts because it took some time, but Indy has finally figured out if QB Andrew Luck is given time to throw. He can make this team pretty, pretty, pretty good. The Colts defense is solid too and going against the worst O-line in the playoffs.
But I still like the Texans, they have WR DeAndre Hopkins who has 115 receptions on the year without a single drop. NOT ONE. That's amazing and he's officially taken the best WR title from Antonio Brown. Houston also has the guy throwing the ball to Hopkins, Deshaun Watson who is no slouch. Watson has quietly regained the magic he had from last season and while all the focus has been on Luck, Watson's going to have something to say.
I think this game starts with both teams trading scores before the Texans string together a few stops and build a two-possession lead. Luck starts slinging it in the fourth and nearly pulls off the comeback, but comes up a play short.
Pick: 34-31, Houston
SEATTLE AT DALLAS (-2.5)
Earlier I said 11 of the 12 teams have a legit shot at being Super Bowl champs, the one team I don't think is going to have a shot at the title is the Dallas Cowboys. Does this mean they'll win the Super Bowl? Probably and I apologize to everyone who has an insufferable Cowboys fan in their life.
I get that Dallas is 7-1 at home and Seattle is 4-4 on the road, but Dallas being favored by -2.5 points is too high. Since the lines were released, the Cowboys are now -1.5-point favorites but again, too much. This game should be a pick'em because on one sideline are Russell Wilson and Pete Carrol and the other, Dak Prescott and Jason Garrett.
It's as simple as this if you're the Rams or Saints who would you rather see? The Wilson/Carrol combo that's won a Super Bowl, are 8-4 in the playoffs, can dominate the time of possession, pick up chunk plays and has the nobody-believes-in-us chip on their shoulder. Or the Prescott/Garrett combo, that's rather one dimensional, claps an unusual amount even for a coach, and can't really play from behind.
The Cowboys front seven is among the league's best but their secondary isn't good and the Seahawk WR's are going to expose them. After Dallas' 23-0 Week 15 loss to Indy, the Colts gave out the blueprint to shut this team down by picking up chunk plays through the air, pound the rock to kill the clock and on defense twist their arms into abandoning the run.
The 'Hawks jump out to a 10-point lead and the 'Boys gameplan is shot to pieces within the first 20 minutes of the game, as the 'Boys defeat becomes more and more evident there will be at least three shots of a sad Jerry Jones in the owner's box.
Pick: 24-10, Seattle
L.A. CHARGERS AT BALTIMORE (-2.5)
This is the toughest game to pick. I'm not putting much stock in the Ravens 22-10 win over the Chargers in Week 16. The Chargers were due for a letdown game after their big win over KC the week before, it's what the Chargers do.
Baltimore has all the makings of a dark horse contender, great defensively, a powering running game and special teams that win them the field position battle. My biggest hang up with the Ravens is QB Lamar Jackson. I don't hate Jackson, one day he'll be among the league's best. My hang up with him is that he fumbles far too much, since taking over as the starter he's fumbled 10 times. We all know that turnovers in the postseason are soul-crushing and if Jackson plays this game start to finish, the Ravens lose.
But say Jackson is hurt or yanked and Joe Flacco comes in, the Ravens go on to win. Having so much faith in Flacco is crazy, but Playoff Joe is a real thing and for his career, he's 10-5 during the postseason. The only active QB's with double-digit wins in the postseason are Tom Brady at 27 and Ben Roethlisberger at 13. And his record could be even better if not for a handful of brutal drops.
Pick: 16-12, L.A.
PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO (-6)
Part of me really wants the Eagles to go on another inexplicable playoff run. That way Philly gives Nick Foles a big contract and trades away Carson Wentz to say, picking a random team, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But that's just wishful thinking on my part. Foles recent success in must-win games is a head-scratcher. He was absolutely terrible at the beginning of the season and that's why the Eagles rushed Wentz back too soon. For whatever reason he's succeeding when the Eagles have their backs against the wall, I'm just going to chalk it up as one of the world's great mysteries, like where is the Ark of the Covenant? Who and why, built Stonehenge? And why is mint chocolate a thing?
Provided Bears QB Mitch Trubisky doesn't implode and account for four turnovers, the Bears take this game. Picking against Foles in a playoff game is dangerous but the magic runs out this week. The Bears defense is the best in football and they'll give Mitch and company good starting field position all game long.
Pick: 17-7, Chicago