Hear Me Out...The most courageous 2019 NFL Divisional predictions

It was an ugly Wildcard weekend for my most courageous picks. The Chargers saved me from going 0-4 on the weekend and the Seahawks improbably helped me go .500 on my against the spread picks.

No time to waste though, I have to try and right the ship for the Divisional round, let's get to it.

INDIANAPOLIS AT KANSAS CITY (-5.5)

All of the conventional wisdom and numbers point in favor of the Colts winning this game. The Chiefs have a historically bad defense and can't stop anyone. The Colts have a good offense, a top-level offensive line and an elite QB in Luck, so it's likely that Indy can control the clock and keep the KC offense sidelined as they bleed the clock.

There's also the elephant in the room that is Andy Reid's playoff record. Reid's struggles in the playoffs are well known and a lot of the criticism that's been lobbed about his game management is deserved, I've even made fun of him for some of his head-scratching moves. Still, all that considered, I'm rolling with the Chiefs.

Backing Reid could absolutely end in disaster but for all the hits he's taken this week on his playoff record, which currently sits at 11-13, one record has been overlooked. That being Reid's record when getting a first-round bye and/or an extra week to prepare.

Reid's record when getting a first-round bye is 3-1. I know it's not a super impressive number like Belichick's, but I'd say there's still something to it. Hang with me here, during Reid's 20 years as an NFL head coach, when coming off a bye week he is 17-3. I get there are a lot of other variables to account for when comparing Reid's bye week and first-round bye records. But what it shows the most, is when he's given extra time to game plan, the odds of his team winning are heavily in his favor.

Also working in Reid's favor is his QB, Patrick Mahomes. If you've seen any amount of football this season, you know Mahomes is a transcendent QB. Even his bad games are games that most QBs would love to have.

The KC defense has been atrocious all year long and cost them several games this season. Yet, the defense did rank in the top 10 for takeaways. I think Reid has a game plan that gets the Chiefs up big in a hurry and they hold on to make it into the AFC title game

Pick: 31-21, Chiefs

DALLAS AT L.A. RAMS (-7)

The last two years I've done this column there's been one annoying team that's proven me wrong round after round. First, it was the Packers and Aaron Rodgers ascending to god-mode and last year the Eagles got me until I finally took them in the Super Bowl. I really, really, hope that the Cowboys aren't that annoying team this year. This country is already divided enough, a Cowboys Super Bowl run might push us all over the edge.

Ever since that MNF shootout between the Rams and Chiefs, Rams QB Jarred Goff has been underwhelming and it's reasonable that most are tying the Rams playoff fate to his arm. But RB Todd Gurley's health is more important to the Rams' success. There's speculation that Gurley has been hurt since that MNF game because his numbers dropped off significantly before sitting out the final two weeks of the season.

I'm not breaking any ground by saying Gurley is the cheat code to this Rams offense. His versatility as a runner and receiver keeps defenses on their heels. If Gurley is in pre-injury form, that's going to open things up for the Rams offensively against Dallas. Meaning they'll be able to win on Saturday and prevent America from falling into anarchy due to insufferable Cowboy fans.

One last note on this game, the Rams defense was terrible to start the season but since getting Aqib Talib back, they've been sneaky good.

Pick: 38-14, Rams

L.A. CHARGERS AT NEW ENGLAND (-4.5)

This might be a tough year for some of this century's best dynasties. Already we've seen two of the most powerful dynasties show some weakness. On Monday, 'Bama football was murdered on live TV. Then last week the UCONN Lady Huskies lost their first regular season game in four seasons.

The next dynasty that's going to take a hit is the New England Patriots.

It feels weird picking against the Pats this early in the playoffs but when you match them up against the Chargers, they don't have many advantages. The Chargers are the better team and with the superior talent. Taking this season into account and just this season, I can't stress that enough, I'd rather have Philip Rivers as my QB.

Brady is one of my favorite QBs and it hurts to say this but he's been average to bad this season. I'm not sure if it's age that's caught up with him, the personnel around him or a combination of the two, but he's been far from Tom Terrific. You remember how last week the Chargers defense terrorized the Ravens offense run by super athlete Lamar Jackson? What do you think that same defense is going to do to a comically unathletic Brady?

When Brady isn't being hit, he'll be ducking ghost and if you listen closely during the game, you'll be able to hear thousands of Patriot haters feverously typing about the death of the Patriots dynasty.

Pick: 31-20, Chargers

PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS (-9)

Let's see, last year I picked against Nick Foles in the playoffs and he still won. I take Nick Foles in the Super Bowl and he won. With each playoff win, the Foles love in Philly grows, possibly setting up a scenario in which the Eagles listen to trade deals for Carson Wentz.

Do I follow last year's pattern of going against Foles with the hopes that he's got another Super Bowl run in him, resulting in Wentz being dealt to Jacksonville? Although if I do, I'll have egg on my face every time the Eagles win.

Decisions, decisions...

Nick Foles stinks and I don't care if I'm mocked for this take. The Saints are going to smash the Eagles this week and expose Foles for the average QB he is. This line could be -21 and I'd still take Brees and the Saints, even though I'm not entirely confident in Brees. Still, the Birds absurd playoff run ends in New Orleans.

Pick: The Saints, by a lot. If you need an exact score, see how many points Pelicans Anthony Davis scores against the Timberwolves tonight that will be the Saint's score. And Philly's score will be however many points Amir Johnson scores for the Sixers when they play the Knicks on Sunday.

Last week's results

Straight up: 1-3

Against the Spread: 2-2