Hear Me Out: The most courageous 2022 NFL predictions: The yuck teams

At long last, the moment has come.

We’re four weeks out from the kickoff of the NFL season, which means it’s time to release the most courageous 2022 NFL predictions.

I’ve looked at the roster moves for all 32 teams, crunched the numbers and have arrived at the most accurate prediction for the 2022 NFL season. These predictions are so precise that there’s no need to check if they come true. (Same with last year’s, no need to go back and look…please don’t go back and look.)

As is tradition, I’ve broken the most courageous 2022 NFL predictions into three parts. This week we’ll cover the yuck teams. Next week are the limbo and fringe playoff teams. Then we’ll wrap things up with the playoff teams.

We’ve also got tiers for each part. This week’s tiers are “I’ll tell you everything. Please, just turn off the Texans,” “It’s a light tank,” “Come for the football, stay for the dysfunction,” and “New York, New York: The city so nice they get two terrible football teams.”

And to be sort of nice – seriously, some of these teams are so bad it’s hard to be hopeful – I’ve given each team a sliver of hope section in which I’ll talk about the best-case scenario.

Let’s get to it!

(Win totals are from DraftKings and stats from pro-footballreference.com)

I’LL TELL YOU EVERYTHING. PLEASE JUST TURN OFF THE TEXANS

Houston Texans

2021 record: 4-13

Win total for 2022: 4.5

Let’s not talk about the Texans any more than we have to. They’re going to be bad. They’ll be feisty under Lovie Smith, but they’ll still be the worst team in the league. They’re trying to sell us on David Mills at QB, but every Texan fan will watch more Ohio State and Alabama (Bryce Young) games than Texan games. They’ll go back and forth on if C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young should be the No. 1 overall pick.

Prediction: Under 4.5 wins.

A sliver of hope: The Texans wrap up the No. 1 overall pick by Week 13.

IT’S A LIGHT TANK

Atlanta Falcons

2021 record: 7-10

Win total for 2022: 5

The Falcons nuked their roster and are going for a quick rebuild. They have $63 million in dead cap, the highest in the league. (Dead cap is the money a team pays a player(s) who has been released or traded.) And as a result, they only added veteran players on team-friendly deals.

As bad as the Falcons will be, they’ll be an oddly fun team to watch. Their defense should offer little resistance, meaning lots of points for the other team. Their offense, while not frightening, should be entertaining. QB Marcus Mariota has the occasional game where you wonder if he could be a franchise QB. Then you remember he’s Marcus Mariota.

TE Kyle Pitts should take a leap in Year 2, and rookie WR Drake London could be another rookie receiver who takes the league by storm.

The only thing the Falcons are missing on offense is a fun running back. I know the Falcons resigned Cordarrelle Patterson to a 2-year $10 million deal, and he was good last year. Not many guys in this league can remake their career on the fly in their 30s, but he did. However, the way the Falcons structured the deal suggests they’re skeptical too. It’s essentially a one-year deal.

Prediction: Under 5 wins.

A sliver of hope: Winning isn’t a priority for the Falcons this season. If they’re competitive and their young core develops while staying in the hunt for Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, that will be a successful season.

Chicago Bears

2021 record: 6-11

Win total for 2022: 6.5

The new front office for the Bears didn’t have a ton of moves to make but, at the same time, didn’t do much to build around second-year QB Justin Fields. They got rid of or let some good players walk. They replaced those good players with journeymen or stop-gap players.  

On paper, the Bears offense looks more anemic than last year. The offensive line is worse. Fields has two guys to throw to, WR Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kemet. Their defense, which ranked sixth last season and kept them in so many games, will take a step back this year. And if they can’t extend linebacker Roquan Smith and trade him, the Bears defense becomes even weaker.

It’s going to be a rough season for the Bears.

Prediction: Under 6.5 wins, and way, way, way under 6.5 wins.

A sliver of hope: Fields doesn’t suffer a season-ending injury. 

COME FOR THE FOOTBALL, STAY FOR THE DYSFUNCTION 

Washington Commanders

2021 record: 7-10

Win total for 2022: 8

Every season we get a team in the news for non-football-related news. Last year’s team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, and this year’s team is Washington.

When your team owner is constantly in the news for everything but the football team he owns, it’s not the best of signs. I’m not sure, but I don’t think spending your summer dodging a Congressional subpoena is in the Pyramid of Success.

Roster-wise, what are the Commanders? We learned last season that their defense was fraudulent. In 2020, the defense looked stout against the worst offenses in the league. Then last season, they got rocked playing against better offenses. The defense won’t be any better this season because their best player, Chase Young, is still recovering from his ACL injury and could be on the PUP list to start the season. Meaning, he’ll miss at least the first four games this season.

The Commanders did have bad QB play last year, and to right the ship, they traded for QB Carson Wentz. While I used to be a Wentz-truther, last season did it for me. (Looking through my bad beats, there was a Wentz theme to a few of them.) I sold what stock I had left on Wentz and moved on. Wentz might have a stretch or two this season, but it always ends the same. When the season is on the line, he will implode and take the Commanders down with him.

Prediction: Under eight wins.

A sliver of hope: Dan Snyder is forced to sell the team. 

Carolina Panthers

2021 record: 5-12

Win total for 2022: 6.5

It’s an NFL story as old as time.

The new front office brings in an offensive-minded coach with a lot of hype. Year 1 is OK, but some unfortunate injuries hit the team. In year 2, the coach gets his guy at QB, but things go off the rails. The offense is a bottom-ranked unit, the injury excuse isn’t working, and the losses pile up. The coach and front office keep their jobs, but there are no excuses now. Panic trades and moves are made in the offseason, further solidifying the inevitable end for this regime.

That’s the situation the Panthers front office and head coach Matt Rhule find themselves in this year. If you’re bringing in Baker Mayfield to save your job, it feels like you already know how poorly this will end.

When diving into the Panthers offseason, multiple sites ranked their signing of punter Johnny Hekker as one of their better moves. That is super depressing. What’s the spin on that move for the fans? Hey, Panther fans! We’ve figured out our three-and-out problem on offense by getting a top-tier punter. Come get your Hekker jerseys now!

The Panthers started 3-0 last season and then went 2-12 the rest of the way. They could be in for the same season this year. Their schedule starts out reasonable but gets brutal quickly with games against the Saints, Cardinals, Rams and Buccaneers. Then before their Week 13 bye, they have two games against the Falcons (not bad) but also have the Ravens, Broncos and Bengals to deal with. Rhule and company could be let go during the bye week.

Prediction: Under 6.5 wins, but they’ll be right at six wins.

A sliver of hope: The NFC is weaker than expected, and the Panthers tread water around .-500. They put together a three-game winning streak, and they sneak into the playoffs as a No. 7-seed at 8-9

NEW YORK, NEW YORK: THE CITY SO NICE THEY GET TWO TERRIBLE FOOTBALL TEAMS

New York Giants

2021 record: 4-13

Win total for 2022: 7

The Giants had a historically inept offense in the final four games of last season. They averaged 6.5 points per game, 206.5 yards ppg and in a game against the Bears, had -6 yards passing. You didn’t read that wrong. Giants QB Mike Glennon was 4/11 for 24 yards, two picks and was sacked four times for 30 yards. The NFL takes sack yards out of the team passing yards, which is how the Giants passed for -6 yards in today’s pass-happy NFL.

The good news for the Giants is they can’t get worse than they were last season. For one, QB Daniel Jones is healthy. Second, they have offensive-minded head coach Brian Daboll, who helped bring Josh Allen along.

The bad news for the Giants is they’re still a bad football team. They have too many holes on their roster to compete for a playoff spot, and the NFC isn’t particularly tough this season either. The Giants feel like that team once it hits December, and they’re 3-8. We’ll see many of their key players hit the IR as they try to tank.

Prediction: Under seven wins.

A sliver of hope: Daboll is as advertised, and the Giants offensive playmakers thrive. It doesn’t translate to wins, but the Giants can snag their QB of the future in the 2023 Draft.  

New York Jets

2021 record: 4-13

Win total for 2022: 5.5

QB Zach Wilson is already dealing with a knee injury, which doesn’t give you much hope for the Jets. They’re in a tough division having to play two games each against the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots. And they have one of the toughest starting schedules with their first nine games against the Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Packers, Broncos, Patriots and Bills. The Browns, Steelers and Dolphins are their best chances at wins during that stretch. In the remaining games, they’ll be touchdown-plus dogs.  

The schedule does lighten some after their Week 10 bye week. The Jets could be that young team we see every year that figures it out later in the season, and they string together some wins.

Prediction: Over 5.5 wins, but it will be a sweat.

A sliver of hope: The Jets are competitive, and Wilson proves he’s a franchise QB even if it doesn’t lead to wins.