Residents should plan for colder, more expensive winter

WORLAND — Residents and commercial customers across the country will likely be spending more on energy this winter compared to recent winters, according to the winter fuels outlook by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA, in its outlook, reported that “Higher forecast energy expenditures are the result of higher fuel prices, combined with higher heating demand because of a forecast of slightly colder weather than last winter.”

According to the EIA, if temperatures stay average, the average household can expect to spend an additional 28% per month from last year on natural gas, 27% on heating oil, 10% on electricity and more than 5% on propane.

Estimates based on temperatures being 10% colder, the average household can expect to spend 51% more on natural gas, 40% on heating oil, 20% on electricity and 36% more on propane.

Further findings in the EIA winter fuels outlook include the fact that “inventories across a range of fuels are low, which creates the possibility for high price volatility and price spikes, particularly if the weather turns out to be very cold.

WEATHER

According to the EIA outlook, “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts U.S. weather temperatures to be slightly colder than previous winter, contributing to more consumption across all fuels and regions.”

Residents in Washakie County have already started feeling the cooler temperatures with November in Worland averaging nearly 6 degrees below normal for the month with 18 of 27 days (through Sunday, Nov. 27) having temperatures below normal. The normal average in November is 45.3 degrees and this year the Worland area is averaging 38 degrees for high temperatures.

There were five days in November (through Sunday) that were more than 20 degrees below average.

Tuesday was forecast to have subzero temperatures.

According to the National Weather Service and Climate Prediction Center the seasonal outlook for December through February has most, if not all, of the Big Horn Basin slightly below normal temperatures. The CPC also shows the precipitation outlook trending to more than normal precipitation for December through February.

NATURAL GAS

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Natural gas is the primary heating fuel for 47% of U.S. homes, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2021 American Community Survey. The retail price of natural gas and the amount of natural gas consumed determine how much households spend on winter natural gas bills.”

According to the release and fuels outlook “this winter, higher retail natural gas prices are the main driver for the expected increase in natural gas bills.” On average, the EIA expect retail natural gas prices to rise 22%, from $13.02 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) last winter to $15.95/Mcf this winter. They also expect retail natural gas prices in the Midwest to increase the most nationally, by 27% compared with last winter, to $13.80/Mcf.

According to the EIA, “Changes in natural gas spot prices are typically reflected in the retail price over a period of months because of the way these costs are handled in regulated rates. Spot price spikes from previous years can affect current retail prices. For example, regional natural gas spot prices approached record highs following Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, especially in the Midwest. Following that price spike, spot prices quickly returned to pre-winter-storm levels. Many utility companies in states affected by the storm filed motions with their states’ public utility commissions detailing plans to recover the extremely high natural gas costs they had incurred following the winter storm.

“This winter, we expect colder temperatures and slightly more household consumption to contribute to higher natural gas bills compared with last winter. For households that use natural gas as their primary space heating fuel, we expect average consumption this winter to increase by 5%, or 58.4 Mcf, from last winter.”

According to a public notice from the Wyoming Public Service Commission, the Commission approved an application from Wyoming Gas, to pass on a wholesale commodity cost increase of $0.4785 per hundreds of cubic feet (ccf) to its customers, effective for usage on and after Oct. 1 through Sept. 20, 2023.

Each year Wyoming Gas purchases natural gas for its customers for the coming year Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. The prices in the application reflect the new purchase agreement.

According to the Commission application, the current purchased gas cost (2021-22) was $.4080 per ccf and the new purchased gas cost is $.8690.

According to the application, the increase will result in a monthly increase of $36.72 or 46.18% before taxes for “a typical residential customer using 77 ccf.”

According to the application and public notice, the proposed change affects approximately 6,000 residential, 847 small commercial, and 134 large commercial customers located in the Wyoming communities of Basin, Burlington, Byron, Greybull, Thermopolis, and Worland.

The Commission’s decision to approve the increase, per the notice is due to the fact that “the evidence shows recovery of the costs is in the public interest and the pass-on includes only prudent commodity or commodity-related cost increases or decreases not under the Commission’s jurisdiction. The costs included in the application are the most reasonable option available to the utility for safe, adequate and reliable service.”

Per the PSC order, a hearing has been set for Wednesday, Dec. 14, regarding the decision. “Anyone desiring to file a statement, intervention petition, protest, or request for hearing must file with the Commission, on or before Dec. 14. A proposed intervention or request for hearing shall set forth the grounds, the position and interest of the petitioner in this proceeding.”

PROPANE and WOOD

According to the EIA, “About 5% of all U.S. households use propane as the primary space heating fuel. We forecast that households in the Northeast, Midwest, and South will spend 5% ($80) more, on average, for propane this winter compared with last winter, driven by higher expected consumption.”

According to the EIA, it is estimated that 1.7 million U.S. households, under 1.5%, will use cord wood or wood pellets as primary fuel for heating and another 7% will use it as a secondary source of heat.

ELECTRICITY

Rocky Mountain Power spokesman David Eskelsen said there has not been any rate changes since July 2021 and no changes are being contemplated.

The only increase Rocky Mountain Power customers can anticipate this winter is based on their usage.

“Some customers do use electricity for heat and those bills will rise based on the price per kilowatt,” Eskelsen said.

Rocky Mountain Power is an operating division on PacifiCorp, serving 147,252 customers in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho.

Energy for Rocky Mountain Power comes primarily from coal (48%), natural gas (20%) and wind (10%).